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Prediction for CME (2022-03-07T00:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-03-07T00:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19367/-1
CME Note: This CME is first seen as a faint partial halo to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2 (later in C3) and followed by a more bright and slightly more narrow shape to the W/NW in STEREO A COR2. The source of this CME is an eruption to the E/SE of AR12958 (N17W28) stretching across multiple longitudes from ~W20 to ~W45 based off of the dimming signature seen in SDO/AIA 193. The eruption is best seen in the SDO/AIA 193, 211, 94, 335, and STEREO A EUVI 195 wavelengths. From STEREO A's point of view, the eruption appears as opening field lines along the Eastern limb, while in SDO/AIA's point of view, the eruption is more clear with dimming, a post-eruptive arcade, and a brief EUV wave (seen best in SDO/AIA 211). UPDATE (2022-03-11T14:50Z): Arrival Field indicated by enhancement exceeding 10 nT, accompanied by field component rotation. Preceded by pileup, followed by slight speed increase. Temperature data inconclusive.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-03-10T18:37Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-03-10T15:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Predicted Dst min. in nT: -30
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

A slow coronal mass ejection associated with a filament eruption NW solar quadrant. Enlil model run indicates CME speed is just above background wind speed and a possible glancing blow, uncertain of degree of geoeffectiveness, solar longitude location is quite good, perhaps a bit high in latitude, but the slow speed of the CME and limited visibility in C3 difference images using CAT somewhat reduces confidence, along with a north-east direction evident in C2 imagery. The CME was quite visible in STEREO A difference imagery though perhaps expansion appeared to be only moderate.

Lead Time: 66.18 hour(s)
Difference: 3.62 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2022-03-08T00:26Z

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